Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.73%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 (11.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 33.6% ( | 28.81% ( | 37.58% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.27% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.72% ( | 61.28% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.8% ( | 81.2% ( |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.99% ( | 34% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.32% ( | 70.68% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.6% ( | 31.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.23% ( | 67.77% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 11.51% ( 2-1 @ 7.2% ( 2-0 @ 6.21% ( 3-1 @ 2.59% ( 3-0 @ 2.23% ( 3-2 @ 1.5% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 33.6% | 1-1 @ 13.34% ( 0-0 @ 10.67% ( 2-2 @ 4.17% ( Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.8% | 0-1 @ 12.36% ( 1-2 @ 7.73% ( 0-2 @ 7.16% ( 1-3 @ 2.98% ( 0-3 @ 2.77% ( 2-3 @ 1.61% ( Other @ 2.97% Total : 37.57% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 58 |
| 3 | Braga | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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