

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 56.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 20.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.57%) and 1-2 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-0 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Benfica |
| 20.04% ( | 23.86% ( | 56.1% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.16% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.84% ( | 51.16% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.99% ( | 73.01% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.01% ( | 39.99% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.36% ( | 76.64% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.92% ( | 18.08% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51% ( | 49% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 6.63% ( 2-1 @ 5.19% ( 2-0 @ 3.04% ( 3-1 @ 1.59% ( 3-2 @ 1.36% ( 3-0 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 1.31% Total : 20.04% | 1-1 @ 11.33% ( 0-0 @ 7.23% ( 2-2 @ 4.44% ( Other @ 0.86% Total : 23.86% | 0-1 @ 12.36% ( 0-2 @ 10.57% ( 1-2 @ 9.69% ( 0-3 @ 6.03% ( 1-3 @ 5.53% ( 0-4 @ 2.58% ( 2-3 @ 2.53% ( 1-4 @ 2.36% ( 2-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 3.35% Total : 56.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 78 | 25 | 53 | 72 |
| 2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 74 | 25 | 49 | 72 |
| 3 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 51 | 25 | 26 | 63 |
| 4 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 62 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 48 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 33 |
| 13 | Nacional | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 32 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 30 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 24 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 21 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 21 |
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