| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Braga | 4 | 14 | 10 |
| 3 | Porto | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Arouca | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 11 | Vizela | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 4 | 0 | 5 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.21%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 8.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.75%), while for a Vizela win it was 1-2 (2.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Vizela |
| 77.21% ( | 14.35% ( | 8.45% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.45% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.83% ( | 34.17% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.94% ( | 56.05% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.78% ( | 7.22% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.81% ( | 26.19% ( |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.3% ( | 46.7% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.74% ( | 82.26% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Vizela |
| 2-0 @ 11.64% ( 3-0 @ 10.2% ( 2-1 @ 8.87% ( 1-0 @ 8.86% ( 3-1 @ 7.77% ( 4-0 @ 6.71% ( 4-1 @ 5.11% ( 5-0 @ 3.53% ( 3-2 @ 2.96% ( 5-1 @ 2.68% ( 4-2 @ 1.94% ( 6-0 @ 1.54% ( 6-1 @ 1.18% ( 5-2 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 3.2% Total : 77.2% | 1-1 @ 6.75% ( 2-2 @ 3.38% ( 0-0 @ 3.37% ( Other @ 0.85% Total : 14.35% | 1-2 @ 2.57% ( 0-1 @ 2.57% ( 0-2 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.33% Total : 8.45% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 54 | 13 | 41 | 56 |
| 2 | Porto | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 48 | 12 | 36 | 51 |
| 3 | Braga | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 49 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 23 | 20 | 41 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 34 |
| 6 | Casa Pia | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 32 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 30 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 27 |
| 9 | Vizela | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 26 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 26 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 26 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 26 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 24 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 23 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 22 |
| 16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 15 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 13 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 12 |
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