Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 55.81%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 23.46% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.14%) and 1-3 (6.74%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (5.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hoffenheim | Draw | Borussia Dortmund | 
| 23.46% ( | 20.72% ( | 55.81% ( | 
| Both teams to score 64.78% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 67.15% ( | 32.84% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 45.45% ( | 54.54% ( | 
| Hoffenheim Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.51% ( | 26.49% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.32% ( | 61.68% ( | 
| Borussia Dortmund Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 88.12% ( | 11.87% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.82% ( | 37.17% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Hoffenheim | Draw | Borussia Dortmund | 
| 2-1 @ 5.91% ( 1-0 @ 4.18% ( 3-2 @ 2.79% ( 2-0 @ 2.78% ( 3-1 @ 2.62% ( 3-0 @ 1.23% ( 4-2 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 3.03% Total : 23.46%  | 1-1 @ 8.9% ( 2-2 @ 6.3% ( 0-0 @ 3.15% ( 3-3 @ 1.98% ( Other @ 0.39% Total : 20.72%  | 1-2 @ 9.49% ( 0-2 @ 7.14% ( 1-3 @ 6.74% ( 0-1 @ 6.7% ( 0-3 @ 5.07% ( 2-3 @ 4.48% ( 1-4 @ 3.59% ( 0-4 @ 2.7% ( 2-4 @ 2.38% ( 1-5 @ 1.53% ( 0-5 @ 1.15% ( 3-4 @ 1.06% ( 2-5 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 2.77% Total : 55.81%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 | 
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 | 
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 | 
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 | 
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 | 
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 | 
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 | 
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 | 
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 | 
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 | 
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 | 
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 | 
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 | 
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 | 
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 | 
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 | 
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 | 
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 | 
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