Making just their second playoff appearance this decade, the Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors at Toyota Center in game one of that opening round series on Sunday night.
A 121-116 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies in the play-in round sent the Warriors into this stage of the post-season, while the Rockets finished second in the Western Conference even though they lost their final regular-season game, 126-111 to the Denver Nuggets.
Match preview
© Imago
In his second season as head coach, Ime Udoka's Rockets took a big step forward, finishing with 11 more wins (52) than they had in his first campaign.
They captured the Southwest Division for the first time since 2019-20 and had their highest winning percentage this season (.634) since 2018-19 (.646).
This season the Rockets were a top four team in the NBA on both ends of the floor in what was an incredibly competitive Western Conference.
Houston averaged 5.5 more shooting opportunities than their opponents during the regular season, the biggest differential in the NBA and the fifth biggest for any team over the past 25 campaigns.
All of those second-chance opportunities came in handy as they ranked 23rd in the NBA regarding effective field goal percentage (52.3).
The Rockets have won two of their previous three meetings against the Warriors, including a 106-96 triumph earlier this month, in a game that saw them grab 49 rebounds and register seven blocks.
© Imago
In the first few months of the season, it seemed as though the Warriors were destined to miss the playoff for a second successive season as they struggled with consistency heading into February.
Everything changed for Steve Kerr's team when the club acquired Jimmy Butler in a blockbuster trade from the Miami Heat, letting former first-overall draft pick Andrew Wiggins go in the deal.
Since that trade on February 6, Golden State have suffered just eight defeats counting the play-in round, while winning their last six encounters on the road.
After acquiring Butler, the Warriors' possession game improved dramatically as they averaged 5.5 more shooting opportunities than their opponents between then and now, the same mark as Houston had throughout the campaign.
One thing that remained consistent for the Warriors this season was their desire to move the ball around, averaging 390 passes per 24 minutes of possession in 2024-25, the second-highest rate in the league.
Golden State led the NBA in assists rate, with at least one on 71.4% of their field goals, though they had the sixth-lowest field goal percentage in the league at 45.1.
Team News
© Imago
In their final game of the regular season, the Rockets were without Jae'Sean Tate, who was dealing with right ankle soreness.
Amen Thompson led them with 15 points in that game, Fred VanVleet connected on three of his eight three-point attempts and Alperen Sengun collected five rebounds.
Despite his collision with Norman Powell in their overtime defeat versus the Los Angeles Clippers last Sunday, the Golden State Warriors had Draymond Green available in the play-in round as he played 31 minutes and collected 10 assists.
Steph Curry played on a sprained right thumb, Jimmy Butler took a knee to the thigh in an earlier game but played as well, with the former scoring 37 points against Memphis and the latter adding 38, while Quinten Post went three of four from beyond the arc.
Houston Rockets possible starting five:
Sheppard, Jal. Green; Whitmore, Je. Green; Sengun
Golden State Warriors possible starting five:
Podziemski, Curry; Butler, Green; Post
We say: Warriors to win by 2+ points
Experience will trump youth in this opening contest, as the Warriors are littered with clutch performers who know how to take their game to another level at this stage of the season.
Joel Lefevre
