Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 35.53%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 34.7% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.21%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (12.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 35.53% | 29.77% | 34.7% |
| Both teams to score 42.74% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.61% | 64.39% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.54% | 83.46% |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.66% | 34.34% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.96% | 71.04% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.09% | 34.91% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.35% | 71.65% |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 12.81% 2-1 @ 7.21% 2-0 @ 6.85% 3-1 @ 2.57% 3-0 @ 2.44% 3-2 @ 1.35% Other @ 2.31% Total : 35.53% | 1-1 @ 13.48% 0-0 @ 11.98% 2-2 @ 3.79% Other @ 0.51% Total : 29.76% | 0-1 @ 12.61% 1-2 @ 7.1% 0-2 @ 6.64% 1-3 @ 2.49% 0-3 @ 2.33% 2-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.19% Total : 34.69% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 58 |
| 3 | Braga | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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