

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.59%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 1-0 (11.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 33.88% | 29.07% | 37.05% |
| Both teams to score 44.58% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.86% | 62.14% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.16% | 81.84% |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.73% | 34.27% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.03% | 70.97% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.83% | 32.17% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.34% | 68.66% |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 11.8% 2-1 @ 7.17% 2-0 @ 6.32% 3-1 @ 2.56% 3-0 @ 2.26% 3-2 @ 1.45% Other @ 2.31% Total : 33.87% | 1-1 @ 13.39% 0-0 @ 11.02% 2-2 @ 4.07% Other @ 0.59% Total : 29.07% | 0-1 @ 12.5% 1-2 @ 7.59% 0-2 @ 7.09% 1-3 @ 2.87% 0-3 @ 2.68% 2-3 @ 1.54% Other @ 2.78% Total : 37.05% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 4 |
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