

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 49.06%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 24.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 49.06% ( | 26.03% ( | 24.91% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.7% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.23% ( | 54.76% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.92% ( | 76.08% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.64% ( | 22.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.15% ( | 55.84% ( |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.73% ( | 37.27% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.94% ( | 74.06% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 1-0 @ 12.48% ( 2-0 @ 9.35% ( 2-1 @ 9.23% ( 3-0 @ 4.67% ( 3-1 @ 4.61% ( 3-2 @ 2.27% ( 4-0 @ 1.75% ( 4-1 @ 1.73% ( Other @ 2.98% Total : 49.06% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0-0 @ 8.33% ( 2-2 @ 4.55% ( Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.02% | 0-1 @ 8.22% ( 1-2 @ 6.08% ( 0-2 @ 4.06% ( 1-3 @ 2% ( 2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0-3 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 1.72% Total : 24.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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