

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 33.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 39.33% ( | 27.61% ( | 33.06% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.65% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.95% ( | 57.04% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.07% ( | 77.93% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.73% ( | 28.27% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.01% ( | 63.99% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.82% ( | 32.18% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.34% ( | 68.66% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 11.49% ( 2-1 @ 8.23% ( 2-0 @ 7.26% ( 3-1 @ 3.47% ( 3-0 @ 3.06% ( 3-2 @ 1.97% ( 4-1 @ 1.1% ( 4-0 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 1.8% Total : 39.33% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 2-2 @ 4.67% ( Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.61% | 0-1 @ 10.31% ( 1-2 @ 7.39% ( 0-2 @ 5.85% ( 1-3 @ 2.79% ( 0-3 @ 2.21% ( 2-3 @ 1.76% ( Other @ 2.74% Total : 33.05% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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