

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.67%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 8.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.88%) and 3-0 (10.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.46%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (3.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Arouca |
| 75.67% ( | 15.68% ( | 8.65% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.16% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.87% ( | 40.13% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.5% ( | 62.49% ( |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.06% ( | 8.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.47% ( | 30.53% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.6% ( | 50.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 15.06% ( | 84.94% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Arouca |
| 2-0 @ 13.13% ( 1-0 @ 10.88% ( 3-0 @ 10.57% ( 2-1 @ 9% ( 3-1 @ 7.24% ( 4-0 @ 6.38% ( 4-1 @ 4.37% ( 5-0 @ 3.08% ( 3-2 @ 2.48% ( 5-1 @ 2.11% ( 4-2 @ 1.5% ( 6-0 @ 1.24% ( Other @ 3.67% Total : 75.66% | 1-1 @ 7.46% ( 0-0 @ 4.51% ( 2-2 @ 3.08% ( Other @ 0.63% Total : 15.68% | 0-1 @ 3.09% ( 1-2 @ 2.55% ( 0-2 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 1.95% Total : 8.65% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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