

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 82.58%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 5.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.63%) and 1-0 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.52%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (1.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | SC Farense |
| 82.58% ( | 11.66% ( | 5.75% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.21% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.36% ( | 31.63% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.86% ( | 53.13% ( |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.34% ( | 5.66% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 78.09% ( | 21.91% ( |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.92% ( | 52.08% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 13.94% ( | 86.05% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | SC Farense |
| 2-0 @ 12.15% ( 3-0 @ 11.63% ( 1-0 @ 8.46% ( 4-0 @ 8.35% ( 2-1 @ 7.93% ( 3-1 @ 7.59% ( 4-1 @ 5.45% ( 5-0 @ 4.8% ( 5-1 @ 3.13% ( 3-2 @ 2.48% ( 6-0 @ 2.3% ( 4-2 @ 1.78% ( 6-1 @ 1.5% ( 5-2 @ 1.02% ( 7-0 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 3.06% Total : 82.57% | 1-1 @ 5.52% ( 0-0 @ 2.95% ( 2-2 @ 2.59% ( Other @ 0.61% Total : 11.66% | 0-1 @ 1.92% ( 1-2 @ 1.8% ( Other @ 2.03% Total : 5.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 4 |
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