

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SC Farense win with a probability of 36.83%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 34.94% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a SC Farense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.79%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| SC Farense | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 36.83% ( | 28.23% ( | 34.94% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.09% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.89% ( | 59.11% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.45% ( | 79.55% ( |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.23% ( | 30.77% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.96% ( | 67.04% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.02% ( | 31.98% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.56% ( | 68.43% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| SC Farense | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 11.59% ( 2-1 @ 7.79% ( 2-0 @ 6.83% ( 3-1 @ 3.06% ( 3-0 @ 2.69% ( 3-2 @ 1.75% ( 4-1 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 2.22% Total : 36.83% | 1-1 @ 13.22% ( 0-0 @ 9.84% ( 2-2 @ 4.44% ( Other @ 0.72% Total : 28.22% | 0-1 @ 11.21% ( 1-2 @ 7.54% ( 0-2 @ 6.4% ( 1-3 @ 2.87% ( 0-3 @ 2.43% ( 2-3 @ 1.69% ( Other @ 2.8% Total : 34.93% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Porto | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | BoavistaBoavista | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Braga | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | SC FarenseFarense | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Vizela | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 1 |
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