

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 37.63%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 37.63% ( | 25.87% ( | 36.5% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.67% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.39% ( | 49.61% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.37% ( | 71.63% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.26% ( | 25.74% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.32% ( | 60.67% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.62% ( | 26.37% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.47% ( | 61.53% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 9.21% ( 2-1 @ 8.33% ( 2-0 @ 6.25% ( 3-1 @ 3.77% ( 3-0 @ 2.83% ( 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 4-1 @ 1.28% ( 4-0 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 2.48% Total : 37.63% | 1-1 @ 12.27% 0-0 @ 6.79% ( 2-2 @ 5.55% ( 3-3 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.86% | 0-1 @ 9.05% ( 1-2 @ 8.18% ( 0-2 @ 6.03% ( 1-3 @ 3.64% ( 0-3 @ 2.68% ( 2-3 @ 2.47% 1-4 @ 1.21% Other @ 3.25% Total : 36.5% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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