

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 45.23%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 27.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Portimonense |
| 45.23% ( | 26.85% ( | 27.91% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.66% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.02% ( | 55.98% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.92% ( | 77.07% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.33% ( | 24.67% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.81% ( | 59.19% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.59% ( | 35.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.83% ( | 72.17% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 12.22% ( 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 2-0 @ 8.56% ( 3-1 @ 4.15% ( 3-0 @ 3.99% ( 3-2 @ 2.15% ( 4-1 @ 1.45% ( 4-0 @ 1.4% ( Other @ 2.43% Total : 45.23% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0-0 @ 8.73% ( 2-2 @ 4.61% ( Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.85% | 0-1 @ 9.07% ( 1-2 @ 6.59% ( 0-2 @ 4.71% ( 1-3 @ 2.28% 0-3 @ 1.63% ( 2-3 @ 1.6% ( Other @ 2.04% Total : 27.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Porto | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | BoavistaBoavista | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Braga | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | SC FarenseFarense | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Vizela | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 1 |
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