

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 46.24%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 28.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Boavista |
| 46.24% ( | 24.9% ( | 28.86% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.29% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.36% ( | 47.64% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.16% ( | 69.84% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.35% ( | 20.65% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.77% ( | 53.23% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.68% ( | 30.31% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.5% ( | 66.49% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Boavista |
| 1-0 @ 9.88% ( 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 2-0 @ 7.79% ( 3-1 @ 4.89% ( 3-0 @ 4.1% ( 3-2 @ 2.92% ( 4-1 @ 1.93% ( 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 4-2 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 2.69% Total : 46.24% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( 0-0 @ 6.26% ( 2-2 @ 5.55% ( 3-3 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.9% | 0-1 @ 7.47% ( 1-2 @ 7.03% ( 0-2 @ 4.46% ( 1-3 @ 2.8% ( 2-3 @ 2.21% ( 0-3 @ 1.77% Other @ 3.11% Total : 28.86% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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