Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 36.37%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 35.8% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (10.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 36.37% ( | 27.83% ( | 35.8% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.31% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.38% ( | 57.62% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.61% ( | 78.39% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.68% ( | 30.32% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.5% ( | 66.5% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.33% ( | 30.67% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.08% ( | 66.92% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 11.09% ( 2-1 @ 7.83% ( 2-0 @ 6.62% ( 3-1 @ 3.11% ( 3-0 @ 2.63% ( 3-2 @ 1.84% ( 4-1 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.3% Total : 36.36% | 1-1 @ 13.11% 0-0 @ 9.3% ( 2-2 @ 4.63% ( Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.83% | 0-1 @ 10.99% ( 1-2 @ 7.75% ( 0-2 @ 6.49% ( 1-3 @ 3.05% ( 0-3 @ 2.56% ( 2-3 @ 1.82% ( 1-4 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 2.23% Total : 35.8% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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