

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 54.84%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 19.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Portimonense |
| 54.84% ( | 25.51% ( | 19.65% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.02% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.3% ( | 57.7% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.55% ( | 78.45% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.9% ( | 21.1% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.07% ( | 53.93% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.8% ( | 44.21% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.71% ( | 80.29% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 14.51% ( 2-0 @ 11.29% ( 2-1 @ 9.22% ( 3-0 @ 5.86% ( 3-1 @ 4.78% ( 4-0 @ 2.28% ( 3-2 @ 1.95% ( 4-1 @ 1.86% ( Other @ 3.1% Total : 54.84% | 1-1 @ 11.84% ( 0-0 @ 9.33% ( 2-2 @ 3.76% ( Other @ 0.58% Total : 25.5% | 0-1 @ 7.61% ( 1-2 @ 4.84% ( 0-2 @ 3.11% ( 1-3 @ 1.32% ( 2-3 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 1.76% Total : 19.65% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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