

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 46.82%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 26.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.56%), while for a Vizela win it was 0-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Vizela |
| 46.82% ( | 26.6% ( | 26.59% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.48% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.24% ( | 55.76% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.1% ( | 76.9% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.19% ( | 23.81% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.02% ( | 57.98% ( |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.63% ( | 36.37% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.84% ( | 73.16% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Vizela |
| 1-0 @ 12.42% ( 2-1 @ 9.02% ( 2-0 @ 8.92% ( 3-1 @ 4.31% ( 3-0 @ 4.27% ( 3-2 @ 2.18% ( 4-1 @ 1.55% ( 4-0 @ 1.53% ( Other @ 2.61% Total : 46.81% | 1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0-0 @ 8.66% ( 2-2 @ 4.56% ( Other @ 0.81% Total : 26.59% | 0-1 @ 8.76% ( 1-2 @ 6.36% 0-2 @ 4.43% ( 1-3 @ 2.14% ( 2-3 @ 1.54% ( 0-3 @ 1.49% ( Other @ 1.87% Total : 26.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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