

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.21%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 45.21% ( | 25.35% ( | 29.43% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.18% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.74% ( | 49.26% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.68% ( | 71.31% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.22% ( | 21.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.02% ( | 54.97% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.27% ( | 30.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.01% ( | 66.99% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 10.2% ( 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 2-0 @ 7.77% ( 3-1 @ 4.66% ( 3-0 @ 3.95% ( 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 4-1 @ 1.78% ( 4-0 @ 1.51% ( 4-2 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 2.37% Total : 45.21% | 1-1 @ 12.03% ( 0-0 @ 6.69% ( 2-2 @ 5.41% ( 3-3 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.35% | 0-1 @ 7.9% ( 1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0-2 @ 4.66% ( 1-3 @ 2.79% ( 2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0-3 @ 1.83% ( Other @ 3.02% Total : 29.43% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 28 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 23 | 46 | 68 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 28 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 74 | 24 | 50 | 66 |
| 3 | Braga | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 57 |
| 4 | Porto | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 25 | 29 | 56 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 46 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 45 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 40 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 40 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 35 |
| 11 | Nacional | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 29 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 29 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 29 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 18 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 28 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 46 | -27 | 18 |
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