

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 60.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 16.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.98%) and 1-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 16.46% ( | 22.84% ( | 60.7% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.88% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.79% ( | 52.21% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.08% ( | 73.92% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.16% ( | 44.84% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.19% ( | 80.81% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.19% ( | 16.81% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.22% ( | 46.78% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 6.05% ( 2-1 @ 4.32% ( 2-0 @ 2.42% ( 3-1 @ 1.16% ( 3-2 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 1.48% Total : 16.46% | 1-1 @ 10.78% ( 0-0 @ 7.54% ( 2-2 @ 3.86% ( Other @ 0.67% Total : 22.84% | 0-1 @ 13.44% ( 0-2 @ 11.98% ( 1-2 @ 9.61% ( 0-3 @ 7.12% ( 1-3 @ 5.71% ( 0-4 @ 3.18% ( 1-4 @ 2.55% ( 2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0-5 @ 1.13% ( 2-4 @ 1.02% ( 1-5 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 1.75% Total : 60.69% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 61 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 80 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 30 | 35 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 66 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 57 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 46 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 38 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 59 | -35 | 24 |
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