

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 53.62%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 21.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.33%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 21.48% ( | 24.9% ( | 53.62% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.16% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.45% ( | 53.55% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.94% ( | 75.06% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.15% ( | 39.85% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.49% ( | 76.51% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.06% ( | 19.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.91% ( | 52.09% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 7.31% ( 2-1 @ 5.42% ( 2-0 @ 3.36% ( 3-1 @ 1.66% ( 3-2 @ 1.34% ( 3-0 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 1.35% Total : 21.48% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( 0-0 @ 7.95% ( 2-2 @ 4.37% ( Other @ 0.79% Total : 24.89% | 0-1 @ 12.81% ( 0-2 @ 10.33% ( 1-2 @ 9.5% ( 0-3 @ 5.55% ( 1-3 @ 5.11% ( 2-3 @ 2.35% ( 0-4 @ 2.24% ( 1-4 @ 2.06% ( 2-4 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.72% Total : 53.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 83 | 25 | 58 | 75 |
| 2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 80 | 25 | 55 | 75 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 64 |
| 4 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 62 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 51 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 50 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 40 | 34 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 41 | 49 | -8 | 42 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 41 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 36 |
| 11 | Nacional | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 33 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 32 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 29 |
| 16 | AVS | 31 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 23 | 55 | -32 | 24 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 20 | 42 | -22 | 21 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 52 | -32 | 21 |
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