

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 77.44%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 7.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.02%) and 1-0 (10.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.02%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (2.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Moreirense |
| 77.44% ( | 14.77% ( | 7.79% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.42% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.12% ( | 38.88% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.81% ( | 61.19% ( |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.76% ( | 8.24% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 71.19% ( | 28.81% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.41% ( | 51.59% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.26% ( | 85.74% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Moreirense |
| 2-0 @ 13.24% ( 3-0 @ 11.02% ( 1-0 @ 10.61% ( 2-1 @ 8.77% ( 3-1 @ 7.29% ( 4-0 @ 6.88% ( 4-1 @ 4.55% ( 5-0 @ 3.43% ( 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 5-1 @ 2.27% ( 4-2 @ 1.51% ( 6-0 @ 1.43% ( 6-1 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 3.08% Total : 77.43% | 1-1 @ 7.02% ( 0-0 @ 4.25% ( 2-2 @ 2.9% ( Other @ 0.59% Total : 14.77% | 0-1 @ 2.81% ( 1-2 @ 2.32% ( 0-2 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 1.72% Total : 7.79% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 61 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 80 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 30 | 35 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 66 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 57 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 46 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 38 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 59 | -35 | 24 |
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
