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MLS header WWW

Major League Soccer

Atlanta United
Major League Soccer
May 18, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Philadelphia Union

Atlanta
0 - 1
Philadelphia


Abram (57'), Abram (57'), Mosquera (90+3'), Mosquera (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Baribo (59' pen., 59' pen.)
Bedoya (21'), Bedoya (21'), Damiani (49'), Damiani (49'), Wagner (89'), Wagner (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's MLS Playoffs clash between Atlanta United and Philadelphia Union, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlanta United

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last Game: Austin 1-1 Atlanta
Thursday, May 15 at 2am in MLS Playoffs

Philadelphia Union

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last Game: Philadelphia 3-2 LA Galaxy
Thursday, May 15 at 12.30am in MLS Playoffs

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 47.92%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.99%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.

Result
Atlanta UnitedDrawPhiladelphia Union
47.92% (-0.838 -0.84)22.54% (0.079000000000001 0.08)29.53% (0.762 0.76)
Both teams to score 64.06% (0.267 0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.69% (0.123 0.12)36.31% (-0.12 -0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.56% (0.132 0.13)58.44% (-0.129 -0.13)
Atlanta United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.43% (-0.25 -0.25)15.57% (0.251 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.48% (-0.467 -0.47)44.52% (0.469 0.47)
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.87% (0.54100000000001 0.54)24.13% (-0.538 -0.54)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.56% (0.761 0.76)58.44% (-0.758 -0.76)
Score Analysis
    Atlanta United 47.92%
    Philadelphia Union 29.53%
    Draw 22.54%
Atlanta UnitedDrawPhiladelphia Union
2-1 @ 9.24% (-0.07 -0.07)
1-0 @ 6.99% (-0.102 -0.1)
2-0 @ 6.5% (-0.153 -0.15)
3-1 @ 5.73% (-0.094 -0.09)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 4.03% (-0.131 -0.13)
4-1 @ 2.66% (-0.067 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.89% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.87% (-0.077 -0.08)
5-1 @ 0.99% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 3.95%
Total : 47.92%
1-1 @ 9.93% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.57% (0.053 0.05)
0-0 @ 3.76% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.93% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 22.54%
1-2 @ 7.06% (0.118 0.12)
0-1 @ 5.34% (0.052 0.05)
0-2 @ 3.8% (0.095 0.09)
1-3 @ 3.35% (0.107 0.11)
2-3 @ 3.11% (0.073 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.8% (0.073 0.07)
1-4 @ 1.19% (0.056 0.06)
2-4 @ 1.11% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 29.53%

How you voted: Atlanta vs Philadelphia

Atlanta United
7.7%
Draw
7.7%
Philadelphia Union
84.6%
13
Head to Head
Apr 20, 2025 12.30am
Philadelphia
3-0
Atlanta
Sullivan (27'), Jean Jacques (50'), Baribo (84')
Glesnes (19'), Lukic (45+3'), Jean Jacques (57')
Lukic (56')

Amador (68'), Latte Lath (70')
> Preview
Sep 29, 2024 12.30am
Philadelphia
1-1
Atlanta
Harriel (61')
Uhre (68'), Harriel (69')
Lobzhanidze (72')
Lennon (52')
> Preview
Apr 14, 2024 7.30pm
Atlanta
2-2
Philadelphia
Rios (55'), Wiley (63')
Almada (25'), Muyumba (84')
Uhre (73'), Wagner (77')
Carranza (21'), Gazdag (35'), Andres Martinez (35'), Wagner (75'), McGlynn (90+5')
> Preview
Oct 5, 2023 12.30am
Philadelphia
3-2
Atlanta
Gazdag (39'), Uhre (41'), Carranza (45+3')
Elliott (34'), Sullivan (66'), Andres Martinez (75'), Harriel (81')
Almada (56' pen.), Mosquera (77')
Thiare (75')
> Preview
Jul 2, 2023 9pm
Atlanta
2-0
Philadelphia
Almada (7'), Lennon (79')
Sejdic (70'), Ibarra (75')

Harriel (4'), Carranza (47'), Uhre (65'), Torres (90+3')
> Preview