J1 League | Gameweek 17
May 18, 2025 at 7am UK
City Light Stadium

Okayama
2 - 1
Albirex Niigata

Esaka (10', 10'), Ichimi (58' pen., 58' pen.)
Tatsuta (90+2'), Tatsuta (90+2')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Hasegawa (15', 15')
Fitzgerald (36'), Fitzgerald (36')
Coverage of the J1 League clash between Fagiano Okayama and Albirex Niigata.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fagiano Okayama

All competitions
Last Game: Reysol 2-0 Okayama
Saturday, May 10 at 8am in J1 League

Albirex Niigata

All competitions
Last Game: Albirex Niigata 1-1 Urawa
Sunday, May 11 at 6.05am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albirex Niigata win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Fagiano Okayama had a probability of 30.89% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Albirex Niigata win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (7.87%). The likeliest Fagiano Okayama win was 1-0 (11.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.

Result
Fagiano OkayamaDrawAlbirex Niigata
30.89% (0.047000000000001 0.05)28.94% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)40.17% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)
Both teams to score 44.32% (0.094000000000001 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.84% (0.10700000000001 0.11)62.16% (-0.10400000000001 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.15% (0.081 0.08)81.85% (-0.076000000000008 -0.08)
Fagiano Okayama Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.57% (0.094000000000001 0.09)36.43% (-0.089999999999996 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.78% (0.097000000000001 0.1)73.22% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)
Albirex Niigata Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.72% (0.045000000000002 0.05)30.28% (-0.041 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.54% (0.056000000000004 0.06)66.46% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Fagiano Okayama 30.89%
    Albirex Niigata 40.17%
    Draw 28.92%
Fagiano OkayamaDrawAlbirex Niigata
1-0 @ 11.14% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 6.72% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 5.63% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.26% (0.01 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.89% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.35% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 30.89%
1-1 @ 13.3% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 11.03% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.01% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 28.92%
0-1 @ 13.17% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
1-2 @ 7.95% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-2 @ 7.87% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.17% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.13% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 1.6% (0.008 0.01)
1-4 @ 0.95% (0.003 0)
0-4 @ 0.94% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.4%
Total : 40.17%