J1 League | Gameweek 16
May 10, 2025 at 8am UK
SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium

Reysol
2 - 0
Okayama

Hosoya (76'), Diego (90')
Kumasaka (74')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Fujita (67')
Coverage of the J1 League clash between Kashiwa Reysol and Fagiano Okayama.

Form, Standings, Stats

Kashiwa Reysol

All competitions
Last Game: Reysol 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse
Tuesday, May 6 at 8am in J1 League

Fagiano Okayama

All competitions
Last Game: Nagoya Grampus 0-0 Okayama
Tuesday, May 6 at 7am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashiwa Reysol win with a probability of 48.47%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Fagiano Okayama had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kashiwa Reysol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.09%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Fagiano Okayama win it was 0-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kashiwa Reysol would win this match.

Result
Kashiwa ReysolDrawFagiano Okayama
48.47% (0.125 0.13)27.93% (-0.026 -0.03)23.6% (-0.102 -0.1)
Both teams to score 42.44% (-0.029000000000003 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.76% (0.012 0.01)62.24% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.08% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)81.91% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)
Kashiwa Reysol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.09% (0.064999999999998 0.06)25.91% (-0.065999999999999 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.1% (0.088000000000001 0.09)60.9% (-0.089999999999996 -0.09)
Fagiano Okayama Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.28% (-0.089000000000006 -0.09)42.71% (0.088000000000001 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.95% (-0.075999999999997 -0.08)79.05% (0.073999999999998 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Kashiwa Reysol 48.46%
    Fagiano Okayama 23.6%
    Draw 27.92%
Kashiwa ReysolDrawFagiano Okayama
1-0 @ 14.94% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 10.09% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 8.59% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.54% (0.024 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.87% (0.01 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.64% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.53% (0.011 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.31% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 48.46%
1-1 @ 12.71% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 11.06% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.65% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.5%
Total : 27.92%
0-1 @ 9.41% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
1-2 @ 5.41% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.53% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.14% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.04% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.07%
Total : 23.6%