Two sides in search of their first points at the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup square off on Friday in San Jose as Jamaica face Guadeloupe at PayPal Park.
The Reggae Boyz were blanked 1-0 by Guatemala in their opening game, while the Guadeloupeans suffered a 5-2 defeat versus the 2023 runners-up, Panama.
Match preview
Days after having their way with Guatemala in World Cup qualifying, winning 3-0, the Jamaicans had a much tougher time penetrating that defensive unit on matchday one of this competition.
In 90 minutes they only managed two shots on target, as their three-match unbeaten run in the group portion of this tournament came to an end.
Steve McClaren’s men have earned a positive result in seven of their last eight matches played versus CONCACAF opponents, failing to score only once during that stretch.
Jamaica, meanwhile, have not lost consecutive Gold Cup contests since 2009 when they suffered two 1-0 defeats in their opening two group fixtures.
They are unbeaten in their previous four matches at this tournament when netting the opener but have gone on to lose their last four Gold Cup games when conceding first.
Friday will be the sixth meeting all time between themselves and Guadeloupe, with the Reggae Boyz coming out on top in each of those last four contests.
A slow start for the Guadeloupeans on matchday one proved to be too much to overcome as they failed to win their opening Gold Cup affair for a fourth successive occasion.
The game was essentially over before we got to the half-hour mark, with the Caribbean team behind by four goals at that stage, as their five-match unbeaten run for them across all competitions eventually ended.
Jocelyn Angloma’s men conceded more goals on matchday one of the Gold Cup, than they had in their previous 11 matches combined (four).
Guadeloupe have not lost consecutive games in this competition since 2021, when they were beaten in all three of their group fixtures.
The last eight times in which they drew first blood this side emerged victorious, while they have lost every match this decade when conceding the opener.
Les Gwada Boys are unbeaten in their last three matches played against Caribbean opposition, without a single goal conceded over that stretch.
Jamaica CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
Jamaica form (all competitions):
Guadeloupe CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
Guadeloupe form (all competitions):
Team News
Despite the defeat on Monday, there was a positive sight for Jamaica as Michail Antonio returned to the field for the first time since a horrific car crash last year, coming on for Jon Russell in the final five minutes against Guatemala.
On Friday Damion Lowe can collect his 75th cap for the senior squad, while Romario Williams can reach the quarter-century mark for the Reggae Boyz with his next appearance.
As for Guadeloupe, Yvann Macon collected his first senior cap in the loss to Panama, leaving Christopher Jullien as the only player on the Gold Cup squad without an appearance to date.
Jordan Leborgne and Florian David scored in the defeat for Les Gwada Boys, the third and fifth, respectively for them with the senior team.
Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Latibeaudiere, King, Pinnock, Bell; Russell, Lowe, Gray; Bailey, Burrell, Cephas
Guadeloupe possible starting lineup:
Cognard; Macon, Cavare, Jullien, Roussillon; Cadiou, Baron; Arenate, Leborgne, Phaeton; Ambrose
We say: Jamaica 3-1 Guadeloupe
Guadeloupe seem to struggle against the stronger sides from CONCACAF, and we expect the Jamaicans to come out with a lot of resilience and determination to stay alive in this competition.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Jamaica win with a probability of 37.3%. A win for Guadeloupe has a probability of 36.41% and a draw has a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jamaica win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.24%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Guadeloupe win is 0-1 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.49%).