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J1 League | Gameweek 21
Jun 21, 2025 at 11am UK
Nagoya Mizuho Athletic Stadium

Nagoya Grampus
vs.
Shimizu S-Pulse

Preview: Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's J1 League clash between Nagoya Grampus and Shimizu S-Pulse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Nagoya Grampus play host to Shimizu S-Pulse on Saturday with the opportunity to move level on points with their opponents in the J1 League table.

That is despite five places currently separating the teams, the home side sitting just four points clear of the relegation zone.



Match preview

Nagoya's Sho Inagaki pictured on February 26, 2025

Having started the campaign without a win in six matches, Nagoya deserve credit for hauling themselves up the standings to a point where they can begin to look forward than over their shoulders.

Even with a 2-1 defeat at Vissel Kobe last time out, there are just five points separating them and ninth place, a top-half finish now perfectly plausible.

Prior to the Vissel Kobe setback, Nagoya had been on a six-match unbeaten streak, accumulating 12 points during that period.

Kenta Hasegawa can be delighted with the progress of his team, particularly at the Toyota Stadium where they have recently defeated Urawa Reds and Albirez Niigata.

Improvements will eventually have to come on their travels, but full focus will be on collecting another win that will extend the gap over the bottom three.

Meanwhile, Shimizu's form has been hit and miss for some time, resulting in them losing ground on the top four.

Despite only accumulating five points from their last seven fixtures, Tadahiro Akiba's side are still within eight points of fourth with a game in hand.

That emphasises how they have fallen in recent weeks, yet there will be hope that a goalless draw with Gamba Osaka was a step in the right direction.

With second-placed Kashiwa Reysol to come next, this feels like a game in which Shimizu will go all out to win, even when they enter this contest having lost their last three away fixtures.

Nagoya Grampus J1 League form:


D D D W W L


Shimizu S-Pulse J1 League form:

L D L W L D

 



Team News

Shimizu S-Pulse player Takashi Inui in April 2025.

Although Nagoya suffered defeat last time out, it came from conceding twice in as many minutes before half time.

As a result, Hasegawa may not over-react and keep changes to a minimum, Tsukasa Morishima perhaps the most likely to be recalled in the number 10 role.

Yuya Yamagishi's place in attack is also at risk, Kasper Junker potentially returning down the centre of the forward line.

With Shimizu drawing a blank against Gamba Osaka, their attacking players are at risk of being dropped, including veteran Takashi Inui.

Kanta Chiba made his first 2025 outing in the J1 League last time out, but the striker may have to remain patient for a start.

With four goals and three assists in the J1 League this season, Kai Matsuzaki seems most likely to start ahead of Inui.

Nagoya Grampus possible starting lineup:

Alexandre; Hara, Mikuni, Sato; Uchida, Shiihashi, Inagaki, Nakayama; Kikuchi; Izumi, Junker

Shimizu S-Pulse possible starting lineup:

Oki; Takahashi, Hasukawa, Sumiyoshi; Yamahara, Bueno, Uno, Capixaba; Nakahara, Matsuzaki; Kitagawa



SM words green background

We say: Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Shimizu S-Pulse


 

Having already defeated Shimizu this season, Nagoya will be confident of pulling off the double when they have home advantage in their favour. However, we feel that the visitors will do enough to earn a share of the spoils and remain three points clear of their hosts.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.





 


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Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Shimizu S-Pulse has a probability of 30.49% and a draw has a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Shimizu S-Pulse win is 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.15%).


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