First place in Group C is at stake Friday at the CONCACAF Gold Cup when Guatemala take on Panama at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas.
Both sides emerged victorious on matchday one, with Los Chapines blanking Jamaica 1-0, putting them in a tie with Panama for first, while the latter defeated Guadeloupe 5-2.
Match preview
Despite some poor defensive performances heading into this tournament, the Guatemalans showed on Monday they are still capable of being organised and sound at the back.
Luis Fernando Tena saw his side concede five goals in their final two warm-up matches before the Gold Cup, but his players held the Jamaicans to just two efforts on target while collecting their second clean sheet of 2025.
Guatemala are now unbeaten in their last five group contests in this competition, a run that dates back to matchday three of the 2021 tournament.
Over that stretch, they have shown to be rather compact defensively, posting three clean sheets in their previous four Gold Cup group games.
A victory for them on Friday would mark the first time they win consecutive fixtures in this competition since 1969, when they finished as runners-up when this tournament was known as the CONCACAF Championship.
Los Mayas are unbeaten in two matches versus Central American opposition this year, but they have not won a game against Panama since August 2005 (2-1).
Another straightforward victory for Panama on matchday one has this team in a good spot to make the knockout stage for a second successive time at the Gold Cup.
Thomas Christiansen’s team have won four of their last five competitive fixtures, including the previous three by a combined margin of 10-2.
Like the Guatemalans, Panama are also unbeaten in their last five group matches at the Gold Cup, while losing only one of their previous six games played in this phase of the competition.
The Panamanians have been sharp in the attacking third, netting multiple goals in their last seven matches played in this portion of the Gold Cup.
They have only given up two goals in the opening half of their previous eight Gold Cup encounters, including the knockout stage of this competition two years ago.
Los Canaleros have won 10 of their last 11 meetings with Guatemala across all competitions, dropping points in only one of those instances at the 2023 CONCACAF Nations League (1-1).
Guatemala CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
Guatemala form (all competitions):
Panama CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
Panama form (all competitions):
Team News
From their World Cup qualifying defeat to Jamaica to their win against them at this tournament, only three players maintained their place in the Guatemalan starting 11, Nicholas Hagen, Jose Carlos Pinto and Jose Morales.
Oscar Santis had the only goal in their matchday one triumph, his 15th with the national team, putting him in a three-way tie for 10th all-time, while he can force a four-way tie for seventh should he score on Friday.
In the victory over Guadeloupe, Anibal Godoy became the record cap holder for the Panamanian men, making his 149th appearance, while Michael Murillo, Fidel Escobar, Andres Andrade, Jose Palomares Gutierrez and Ismael Diaz were the only players to maintain their place in the starting 11 from their World Cup qualifying victory over Nicaragua.
Diaz notched a brace against Guadeloupe this week, with the other goals coming courtesy of Cristian Martinez, Eduardo Guerrero and Tomas Abdiel Rodriguez Mena, the first for the latter with the senior team.
Guatemala possible starting lineup:
Hagen; Herrera, Pinto, Samayoa, Morales; Franco, Saravia; Santis, Rubin, Castellanos; Lom
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mosquera; Murillo, Escobar, Andrade, Gutierrez; Harvey, Godoy; Cedeno, Martinez, Diaz; Guerrero
We say: Guatemala 1-2 Panama
Panama have made their share of deep runs in CONCACAF tournaments lately and have figured out how to win close games in various ways, something which should come in handy on Friday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Guatemala win with a probability of 53.55%. A draw has a probability of 25.7% and a win for Panama has a probability of 20.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guatemala win is 1-0 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.88%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12%), while for a Panama win it is 0-1 (7.81%).