CONCACAF Nations League | Final

Mar 24, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Masafi Stadium

Mexico
2 - 1
Panama

Jimenez (8', 8', 8', 90+2' pen., 90+2' pen., 90+2' pen.)

FT(HT: 3-3)

Carrasquilla (45+2' pen., 45+2' pen., 45+2' pen.)
Carrasquilla (33'), Carrasquilla (33'), Carrasquilla (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Mexico and Panama, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Canada 0-2 Mexico
Friday, March 21 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Venezuela	3	5	9
2	Ecuador	3	1	4
3	Mexico	3	0	4
4	Jamaica	3	-6	0

Panama

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: USA 0-1 Panama
Thursday, March 20 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Uruguay	3	8	9
2	Panama	3	1	6
3	USA	3	0	3
4	Bolivia	3	-9	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 60.99%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Panama had a probability of 16.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.26%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Panama win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.

Result
Mexico	Draw	Panama
60.99% ( -0.71)	22.04% ( 0.23)	16.97% ( 0.48)

Both teams to score 49.3% (

0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.82% (

-0.16)

48.18% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.66% (

-0.14)

70.34% (

0.14)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.68% (

-0.28)

15.32% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.93% (

-0.53)

44.07% (

0.53)

Panama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.22% (

0.51)

41.78% (

-0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.76% (

0.44)

78.24% (

-0.44)

Score Analysis

Mexico 60.98%

Panama 16.97%

Draw 22.04%

Mexico	Draw	Panama
1-0 @ 12% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 11.26% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.04% ( -0.16) 3-1 @ 6.15% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 2.88% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.68% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.25% Total : 60.98%	1-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.87% Total : 22.04%	0-1 @ 5.59% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 4.57% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.79% Total : 16.97%