Friendlies 1

Feb 8, 2025 at 11.30pm UK

Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos

Chile
6 - 1
Panama

Guerra (2', 25', 42'), Uribe (5'), Cepeda (52'), Patricio Pino Briceno (81')
Marcelo Hormazabal Berrios (28'), Cuevas (73'), Escobar (76'), Wiemberg (80'), Diaz (86')

FT(HT: 4-1)

Waterman Ruiz (30' pen.)
Perdomo (25'), Janpol Morales Napa (63')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's friendly clash between Chile and Panama, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chile

All competitions

Last Game: Chile 4-2 Venezuela
Wednesday, November 20 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Uruguay	12	8	20
4	Colombia	12	5	19
5	Brazil	12	6	18
6	Paraguay	12	1	17
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	12	-11	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Panama

All competitions

Last Game: Panama 2-2 Costa Rica
Tuesday, November 19 at 2am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Uruguay	3	8	9
2	Panama	3	1	6
3	USA	3	0	3
4	Bolivia	3	-9	0

Judging by the team selections, it appears that Panama want to avoid any key players being injured for their Nations League fixture next month, and we expect to see them struggle against a Chilean side that may have more confidence heading into this clash. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 46.82%. A win for Panama had a probability of 27.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Panama win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chile would win this match.

Result
Chile	Draw	Panama
46.82% ( 0.36)	25.53% ( -0.21)	27.65% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 52.46% (

0.54)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.04% (

0.76)

50.96% (

-0.75)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.17% (

0.66)

72.83% (

-0.66)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.23% (

0.48)

21.77% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.04% (

0.72)

54.95% (

-0.72)

Panama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.06% (

0.28)

32.94% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.48% (

0.31)

69.52% (

-0.31)

Score Analysis

Chile 46.82%

Panama 27.65%

Draw 25.53%

Chile	Draw	Panama
1-0 @ 10.93% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.1) 3-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.34% Total : 46.82%	1-1 @ 12.14% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.17% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.53%	0-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 6.74% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.5% Total : 27.65%

How you voted: Chile vs Panama

Chile

87.5%

Draw

12.5%

Panama

0.0%

Form Guide

Panama 2-2 Costa Rica

Costa Rica 0-1 Panama

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Chile
6 - 1
Panama