With a potential place in the quarter-finals on the table, Costa Rica take on the Dominican Republic in CONCACAF Gold Cup action on Wednesday at AT&T Stadium.
On matchday one, Los Ticos defeated Suriname in the dying moments 4-3, while the Dominicans were narrowly beaten 3-2 by reigning champions Mexico.
Match preview
Fans at Snapdragon Stadium witnessed one of the craziest finishes we have ever seen in a Gold Cup fixture Sunday, with the Costa Ricans converting a penalty in the 13th minute of stoppage time to come away with maximum points.
It appeared as though Miguel Herrera’s men were set for a massive letdown, squandering a 2-0 lead and down 3-2 with fewer than 15 minutes remaining before storming back.
Thanks to that dramatic triumph, they can officially book a place in the last eight with a victory in midweek, combined with a Mexican triumph over Suriname.
Since a 3-0 friendly defeat to the USA to begin the year, Costa Rica have exploded in the attacking third, scoring a combined 27 goals in their last six competitive fixtures.
Costa Rica, meanwhile, have not been beaten a group contest at the Gold Cup by a Caribbean team since 2019 when they gave up a 1-0 lead, losing 2-1 to Haiti at Red Bull Arena.
Wednesday will be the third meeting between themselves and the Dominican Republic all-time with Los Ticos winning both prior engagements by a combined margin of 8-1.
To the surprise of many the Dominican Republic handled their debut Gold Cup group match quite well, staying stride for stride with the El Tri throughout the 90 minutes.
Marcelo Neveleff’s side had only 37% of the possession but managed to keep the Mexicans at bay for nearly the entire opening half and ultimately fell just short.
The Dominican need a result to guarantee they will not be eliminated and on Wednesday will be seeking their first triumph against a Central American opponent since defeating El Salvador 1-0 at the 2019 CONCACAF Nations League.
This team have not lost consecutive international fixtures all year, while they have yet to suffer back-to-back defeats versus CONCACAF opposition since June to November 2022.
They have failed to win three of their previous five fixtures on the international stage when netting multiple goals though that defeat to Mexico was their only one in that scenario since November 2022 against Cuba (4-2).
Los Quisqueyanos have won their last 13 matches across all competitions when scoring the opening goal, including two shutout triumphs in 2025.
Costa Rica CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
Costa Rica form (all competitions):
Dominican Republic CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
Dominican Republic form (all competitions):
Team News
Costa Rica might be without Warren Madrigal who was taken to hospital after suffering a knock in the second half against Suriname, replacing Carlos Mora for the final 12 minutes of that match.
Manfred Ugalde netted a brace from the penalty spot on Sunday with their other goals coming courtesy of Josimar Alcocer and Alonso Martinez.
There were four newcomers in the Dominican starting 11 who did not begin their World Cup qualifier versus Guatemala, Xavier Valdez, Joao Urbanez, Jimmy Adrian Kaparos and Edarlyn Reyes.
Peter Gonzalez scored the first goal for them in the history of this tournament, with the other one coming from Edison Azcona, who replaced Reyes after an hour.
Costa Rica possible starting lineup:
Navas; C. Mora, Mitchell, Faerron, Calvo, J. Mora; Brenes, Galo, Aguilera; Martinez, Ugalde
Dominican Republic possible starting lineup:
Valdez; Firpo, Kaparos, Rosario, Pujol, Dollenmayer; Gonzalez, Breton, Lopez, Reyes; Romero
We say: Costa Rica 4-2 Dominican Republic
The Dominicans showed they can compete and have some decent firepower, but the Costa Ricans' overall depth in the attacking third should overpower them on Wednesday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Costa Rica win with a probability of 49.05%. A win for Dominican Republic has a probability of 27.62% and a draw has a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Costa Rica win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Dominican Republic win is 1-2 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.74%).