Matchday two of Group A action at the CONCACAF Gold Cup concludes on Wednesday evening when Suriname square off with Mexico at AT&T Stadium in Texas.
Over the weekend Suriname were beaten 5-3 by Costa Rica in their opening group fixture, while El Tri hung onto a 3-2 triumph over the Dominican Republic.
Match preview
That first Gold Cup victory in nearly four years was in the grasp of Suriname on Sunday, only for it to be cruelly taken away in the latter stages.
Stanely Menzo’s men erased a 2-0 deficit and were ahead with fewer than 15 minutes remaining before falling apart, conceding two goals late, including the winner from the penalty spot in the 13th minute of stoppage time.
That ended a four-match unbeaten run for them across all competitions, and it was their first defeat since November 2024 (3-0 against Canada).
They have lost their previous five matches played against sides from North America, while failing to find the back of the net in all of those encounters.
Historically, Suriname have scored first in five of their Gold Cup fixtures all-time but have only emerged victorious in one of those instances, beating Guadeloupe 2-1 in July 2021.
Natio have not suffered consecutive defeats versus CONCACAF opposition since last November, when Canada beat them in both legs of their Nations League quarter-final tie.
Mexico survived a scare in their opening game of this tournament, conceding five shots on target and narrowly fending off a pesky Dominican side.
Javier Aguirre’s men did not find the back of the net until the latter stages of the opening half but have now won 11 successive matches when scoring the opener.
The reigning Gold Cup champions conceded as many goals on Saturday as they had in the entire 2023 competition, when they lifted the trophy for a record 12th time.
El Tri are unbeaten in their last seven Gold Cup affairs and have not lost a matchday two group contest since 2007 (2-1 versus Honduras).
The Mexicans can book a place in the quarter-finals of the Gold Cup with a win on Wednesday and a Costa Rican triumph over the Dominican Republic.
This game will mark their fourth meeting all-time against Suriname, and Mexico have dominated the overall series, winning those three prior affairs by a combined margin of 16-1.
Suriname CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
Suriname form (all competitions):
Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
Mexico form (all competitions):
Team News
In their defeat to Costa Rica, Shaquille Pinas moved into a tie for ninth in all-time caps for Suriname, collecting his 27th for the national team, while record goalscorer Gleofilo Vlijter is now sixth all-time with 30 appearances and can move into fourth if he plays on Wednesday.
Gyrano Kerk, Pinas and Richonell Margaret all netted in a losing effort on Sunday, with the latter scoring his first goal for the national team.
Mexico will be without Hirving Lozano and Henry Martin for this tournament after both players sustained knocks in training, with Jesus Angulo ruled out because of an injury late last month.
Raul Jimenez scored his 40th goal with El Tri in their matchday one triumph, while the other two strikes came courtesy of Cesar Montes and Edson Alvarez.
Suriname possible starting lineup:
Vaessen; Dijksteel, Van Gelderen, Malone, Pinas, Haps; Lonwijk, Paal, Margaret; Kerk, Vlijter
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Malagon; Sanchez, Reyes, Montes, Gallardo; Ef. Alvarez, Lira, Ed. Alvarez, Pineda; Gimenez, Jimenez
We say: Suriname 0-1 Mexico
These are normally strong defensive units despite what occurred on matchday one, but in the end, we trust the Mexican experience and their resiliency to win the day.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mexico win with a probability of 36.98%. A win for Suriname has a probability of 36.12% and a draw has a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Suriname win is 1-0 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.78%).