[monks data]
Canada national football team
CONCACAF Gold Cup | Group Stage
Jun 18, 2025 at 3.30am UK
BC Place Stadium
Honduras national football team

Canada
vs.
Honduras

Preview: Canada vs Honduras - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's CONCACAF Gold Cup clash between Canada and Honduras, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Matchday one of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup will come to an end on Tuesday as Canada face off with Honduras at BC Place Stadium in Vancouver.

The Canucks lost in a shootout to the Ivory Coast last Tuesday after that match ended in a 0-0 draw, while La H defeated Antigua and Barbuda 2-0 in World Cup qualifying that same day.



Match preview

Canada's Jonathan David in action on June 20, 2024 [IMAGO]

Canada will head into the Gold Cup this time around feeling supremely confident about their chances to lift this trophy for the third time and the first since 2000.

Last week, they won the inaugural Canadian Shield invitational tournament, collecting their first clean sheet of the year in their shootout loss to the Ivory Coast.

Jesse Marsh has suffered just one defeat in normal time in his last 10 matches in charge of this team, while the men have not lost a match played in Canada since November 2023.

The bronze medallists at the most recent CONCACAF Nations League are undefeated in their last five opening group fixtures at the Gold Cup, playing to a 2-2 draw with Guadeloupe in their first match two years ago.

They have suffered just one defeat in their previous six group encounters in this competition, losing 1-0 to the eventual champions the United States in 2021.

Les Rouges are unbeaten in their last five matches played against the Hondurans on Canadian soil, including a 1-0 triumph in a November 2015 fixture played at BC Place.

 Luis Palma celebrates scoring a goal for Honduras on November 14, 2024

It has been a near perfect year for Honduras thus far, with this team winning four of their five matches played on the international stage so far in 2025.

Over that stretch, manager Reinaldo Rueda has seen his team collect three clean sheets, winning their last four matches by a combined margin of 10-3.

Honduras have been traditionally slow starters at the Gold Cup, losing four of their previous five opening group games, including a 4-0 defeat to Mexico in their first match two years ago.

It has been nearly four years since their last triumph in normal time on North American soil, when they defeated Panama 3-2 in Houston at the 2021 Gold Cup.

Their quest to make the World Cup finals for the first time since 2014 is off to a strong start, finishing with a perfect 4-0 record to advance to round three of CONCACAF qualification.

Los Catrachos have collected at least a point in three of their four Gold Cup fixtures versus Canada, without a goal conceded in those last two such meetings.

Canada form (all competitions):

Honduras form (all competitions):



Team News

 Cyle Larin, Derek Cornelius and Moise Bombito of Canada pictured on March 20, 2025

Canadian captain Alphonso Davies will miss this tournament as he recovers from a cruciate ligament tear, while Sam Adekugbe has been ruled out after tearing his Achilles tendon in their match against the Ivory Coast.

On Tuesday Cyle Larin can move into fifth for all-time caps on the men's national team, while Jonathan Osorio is now the third-most capped player for the Canucks after their previous match.

Dayne St Clair came in between the sticks for Maxime Crepeau last Tuesday, making just one stop for a clean sheet, while Tani Oluwaseyi and Luc De Fougerolles missed their penalty kicks in that friendly.

On the Honduran side Rigoberto Rivas was a late omission to the Gold Cup squad with an injury with Denil Maldonado also ruled out because of a knock, as Rueda selected Dixon Ramirez and Luis Santamaria to replace them.

Ramirez is the only uncapped player for La H in this competition, while Deybi Flores, who features for Canadian side Toronto is two appearances away from 50 with the national team.

Getsel Montes and Alexy Vega each scored their first goals for Los Catrachos the last time out, while Romell Quioto, who previously played in Canada for CF Montreal can move into 10th all by himself in all-time goals for this team with his next one.

Canada possible starting lineup:

Crepeau; Laryea, Waterman, Cornelius, Bassong; Buchanan, Kone, Eustaquio, Shaffelburg; David, Larin

Honduras possible starting lineup:

Menjivar; Najar, Montes, Martinez, Rosales; Flores; Palma, Arriaga, Lozano, Rodriguez; Quioto



SM words green background

We say: Canada 2-0 Honduras

The Canadians have proven to be a side full of versatility and attacking depth, and those should propel them to a win against a Honduran squad that have not faced many formidable CONCACAF teams heading into this tournament.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.





 


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Written by
Joel Lefevre

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Canada win with a probability of 45.21%. A win for Honduras has a probability of 29.73% and a draw has a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Honduras win is 0-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.86%).


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