From the sidelines to the showpiece, returning world number one Jannik Sinner seeks his first ATP Tour title since his comeback on Sunday, when Carlos Alcaraz awaits in a blockbuster Italian Open final.
The home favourite in Rome overcame a shocking start against Tommy Paul in his semi-final battle to set up an 11th meeting with the third seed, who denied Sinner an all-Italian final by taking down Lorenzo Musetti in the last four.
Match preview
© Imago
Back where he belongs - in a top-level final - Sinner's world-beating qualities did not abandon him during his doping suspension, as evidenced by the world number one ridiculously reaching the championship match in each of his last seven tournament appearances.
A sensational streak that started at the 2024 Cincinnati Open and runs to the current Rome Masters, Sinner has only been slain in one of those seven finals - losing to none other than Alcaraz in Beijing last October - but revenge could now taste sweeter than ever.
The top seed's 6-0 6-1 dismantling of clay aficionado Casper Ruud in the quarter-finals sent shockwaves throughout the ATP Tour, although Paul winning the first set of their semi-final 6-1 would have also raised plenty of eyebrows as the American threatened the shock of all shocks.
However, Sinner fought back in a manner befitting the world number one, conquering Paul 1-6 6-0 6-3 to reach his 25th top-level singles final at the age of 23 and ending Italy's 47-year wait for another male finalist at their home Masters tournament.
Prior to Sinner's surge to this year's main event, Adriano Panatta was the last Italian man to progress to the Italian Open singles final - all the way back in 1978 - and the home nation could be celebrating a famous one-two if Jasmine Paolini can conquer Coco Gauff in the corresponding women's showpiece.
© Imago
Sinner will be under no illusions that he will have to improve drastically on Friday's semi-final display, but the same is true of familiar foe Alcaraz, who made hard work of his second-set slog with Musetti but eventually got the job done in just over two hours.
The reigning French Open and Wimbledon winner emerged triumphant by a 6-3 7-6[4] scoreline, despite only managing an underwhelming 19 winners compared to 42 unforced errors, although Musetti's even more meagre tally of nine in the former category helped Alcaraz on his way.
Frustration threatened to get the better of Alcaraz on a couple of occasions on Friday, not helped by the Spaniard double-faulting on five occasions, but one poorly-hit drop shot from Musetti in the dying embers helped the third seed punch his ticket to a 26th ATP Tour final.
Alcaraz's last championship match did end in failure against Holger Rune in Barcelona, but the 21-year-old has only ever lost back-to-back ATP Finals on one occasion, suffering consecutive defeats in Hamburg and Croatia in July 2022.
Eerily, the first of those defeats came against none other than semi-final opponent Musetti, and the second against none other than Sinner, adding yet another fascinating sub-plot to an Italian Open final that promises aggression and artistry in equal measure.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
First round: vs. Bye
Second round: vs. Mariano Navone 6-3 6-4
Third round: vs. Jesper de Jong 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Francisco Cerundolo 7-6[2] 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Casper Ruud 6-0 6-1
Semi-final: vs. Tommy Paul 1-6 6-0 6-3
Carlos Alcaraz:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Dusan Lajovic 6-3 6-3
Third round: vs. Laslo Djere 7-6[2] 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Karen Khachanov 6-3 3-6 7-5
Quarter-final: vs. Jack Draper 6-4 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-3 7-6[4]
Head To Head
China Open (2024) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-7[6] 6-4 7-6[3]
French Open (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz wins 2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3
Indian Wells Masters (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz wins 1-6 6-3 6-2
China Open (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner wins 7-6[4] 6-1
Miami Open (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner wins 6-7[4] 6-4 6-2
Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Semi-final: Alcaraz wins 7-6[4] 6-3
US Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-7[7] 6-7[0] 7-5 6-3
Croatia Open (2022) - Final: Sinner wins 6-7[5] 6-1 6-1
Wimbledon (2022) - Last 16: Sinner wins 6-1 6-4 6-7[8] 6-3
Paris Masters (2021) - Second Round: Alcaraz wins 7-6[1] 7-5
The latest iteration of a burgeoning rivalry, Alcaraz and Sinner are clashing for the 11th time in a top-level singles match this weekend, and the Spaniard just holds the bragging rights with a 6-4 head-to-head lead over the world number one.
Sinner led the way at the start of 2024, but the Italian fell to defeat in each of their three contests in the 2024 season, most recently the Beijing final after semis losses at Roland-Garros and Indian Wells; both occasions saw Alcaraz come from behind after losing the first set.
However, the pair are tied 1-1 when it comes to meetings on the clay, as Alcaraz's five-set French Open success last year came two years after Sinner's victory in the 2022 Croatia Open final, since when he has beaten the 21-year-old just twice in their last seven showdowns.
We say: Sinner to win in three sets
Only the bravest soul would be able to predict the winner of any Sinner-Alcaraz showdown with unbridled confidence, and we cannot picture any scenario where an epic final does not go the distance.
Alcaraz may have more match practice under his belt in 2025, but Sinner has by and large returned like he never left, and the home favourite can capitalise on the Spaniard's recent propensity to commit unforced errors to become the next Roman emperor.
Ben Knapton
