Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 54.43%. A win for FC Twente had a probability of 24.61% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.9%) and 3-1 (6.6%). The likeliest FC Twente win was 1-2 (6.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | FC Twente |
| 54.43% ( | 20.96% ( | 24.61% ( |
| Both teams to score 65.35% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.29% ( | 32.7% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.62% ( | 54.38% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.78% ( | 12.22% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.09% ( | 37.9% ( |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.45% ( | 25.55% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.58% ( | 60.41% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | FC Twente |
| 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 2-0 @ 6.9% ( 3-1 @ 6.6% ( 1-0 @ 6.56% ( 3-0 @ 4.84% ( 3-2 @ 4.5% ( 4-1 @ 3.47% ( 4-0 @ 2.54% ( 4-2 @ 2.37% ( 5-1 @ 1.46% ( 4-3 @ 1.08% ( 5-0 @ 1.07% ( 5-2 @ 1% ( Other @ 2.65% Total : 54.43% | 1-1 @ 8.95% ( 2-2 @ 6.42% ( 0-0 @ 3.12% ( 3-3 @ 2.05% ( Other @ 0.41% Total : 20.96% | 1-2 @ 6.11% ( 0-1 @ 4.26% ( 2-3 @ 2.92% ( 0-2 @ 2.91% ( 1-3 @ 2.78% ( 0-3 @ 1.32% ( 2-4 @ 1% ( 1-4 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.37% Total : 24.61% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 |
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 |
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 |
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 |
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
