Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 43.79%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.62%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 2-1 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Barcelona | 
| 32.53% ( | 23.68% ( | 43.79% ( | 
| Both teams to score 61.54% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 59.68% ( | 40.31% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 37.31% ( | 62.69% ( | 
| Athletic Bilbao Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.72% ( | 24.28% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.35% ( | 58.65% ( | 
| Barcelona Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.28% ( | 18.72% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.91% ( | 50.09% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Barcelona | 
| 2-1 @ 7.63% ( 1-0 @ 6.44% ( 2-0 @ 4.55% ( 3-1 @ 3.6% ( 3-2 @ 3.02% ( 3-0 @ 2.15% ( 4-1 @ 1.27% ( 4-2 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 2.81% Total : 32.53%  | 1-1 @ 10.78% ( 2-2 @ 6.39% ( 0-0 @ 4.55% ( 3-3 @ 1.68% ( Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.68%  | 1-2 @ 9.03% ( 0-1 @ 7.62% ( 0-2 @ 6.38% ( 1-3 @ 5.04% ( 2-3 @ 3.57% ( 0-3 @ 3.56% ( 1-4 @ 2.11% ( 2-4 @ 1.5% ( 0-4 @ 1.49% ( Other @ 3.48% Total : 43.79%  | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 | 
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 | 
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 | 
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 | 
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 | 
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 | 
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 | 
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 | 
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 | 
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 | 
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 | 
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 | 
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 | 
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 | 
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 | 
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 | 
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