Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 56.27%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 23.44% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.84%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-2 (5.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.