Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 75.19%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 10.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-3 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.63%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 2-1 (3.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Valladolid | Draw | Barcelona |
| 10.1% ( | 14.71% ( | 75.19% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.72% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.95% ( | 30.05% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.74% ( | 51.26% ( |
| Real Valladolid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.71% ( | 40.29% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.09% ( | 76.92% ( |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.3% ( | 6.7% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 75.2% ( | 24.81% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Valladolid | Draw | Barcelona |
| 2-1 @ 3.02% ( 1-0 @ 2.45% ( 3-2 @ 1.24% ( 2-0 @ 1.12% ( 3-1 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 1.37% Total : 10.1% | 1-1 @ 6.63% ( 2-2 @ 4.08% ( 0-0 @ 2.7% ( 3-3 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 14.71% | 0-2 @ 9.86% ( 1-2 @ 8.97% ( 0-3 @ 8.89% ( 1-3 @ 8.08% ( 0-1 @ 7.3% ( 0-4 @ 6.01% ( 1-4 @ 5.46% ( 2-3 @ 3.67% ( 0-5 @ 3.25% ( 1-5 @ 2.95% ( 2-4 @ 2.48% ( 0-6 @ 1.46% ( 2-5 @ 1.34% ( 1-6 @ 1.33% ( Other @ 4.15% Total : 75.19% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 |
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 |
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 |
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 |
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 |
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