

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 32.38% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.63%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Groningen win was 2-1 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Groningen | Draw | Ajax |
| 32.38% ( | 24.57% ( | 43.05% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.29% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.45% ( | 44.55% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.08% ( | 66.92% ( |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.58% ( | 26.42% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.42% ( | 61.58% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.21% ( | 20.79% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.56% ( | 53.44% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Groningen | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 7.64% ( 1-0 @ 7.31% ( 2-0 @ 4.87% ( 3-1 @ 3.39% ( 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 3-0 @ 2.16% ( 4-1 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 3.22% Total : 32.38% | 1-1 @ 11.48% ( 2-2 @ 6% ( 0-0 @ 5.49% ( 3-3 @ 1.4% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.57% | 1-2 @ 9.02% ( 0-1 @ 8.63% ( 0-2 @ 6.77% ( 1-3 @ 4.72% ( 0-3 @ 3.55% ( 2-3 @ 3.14% ( 1-4 @ 1.85% ( 0-4 @ 1.39% ( 2-4 @ 1.23% ( Other @ 2.74% Total : 43.05% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 |
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 |
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 |
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 |
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
