

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 52.52%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 26.58% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.44%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Ajax |
| 52.52% ( | 20.9% ( | 26.58% ( |
| Both teams to score 67.76% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.53% ( | 30.46% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.25% ( | 51.75% ( |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.99% ( | 12.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.53% ( | 37.47% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.01% ( | 22.99% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.21% ( | 56.79% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 9.12% ( 3-1 @ 6.44% ( 2-0 @ 6.2% ( 1-0 @ 5.85% ( 3-2 @ 4.73% ( 3-0 @ 4.38% ( 4-1 @ 3.41% ( 4-2 @ 2.51% ( 4-0 @ 2.32% ( 5-1 @ 1.45% ( 4-3 @ 1.23% ( 5-2 @ 1.06% ( 5-0 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.83% Total : 52.52% | 1-1 @ 8.6% ( 2-2 @ 6.7% ( 0-0 @ 2.76% ( 3-3 @ 2.32% ( Other @ 0.51% Total : 20.9% | 1-2 @ 6.32% ( 0-1 @ 4.06% ( 2-3 @ 3.28% ( 1-3 @ 3.1% ( 0-2 @ 2.98% ( 0-3 @ 1.46% ( 2-4 @ 1.21% 1-4 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 3.02% Total : 26.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 32 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 63 | 30 | 33 | 74 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 96 | 37 | 59 | 73 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 32 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 74 | 36 | 38 | 65 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 44 | 17 | 62 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 60 | 44 | 16 | 54 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 54 | 34 | 20 | 53 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 53 | 50 | 3 | 48 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 40 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 39 |
| 10 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 38 |
| 11 | Groningen | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 38 |
| 12 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 38 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 45 | 1 | 37 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 35 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 33 | 54 | -21 | 32 |
| 16 | Willem II | 32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 25 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 39 | 69 | -30 | 22 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 20 |
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