

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 50.91%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 25.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Ajax in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ajax.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Ajax |
| 25.63% ( | 23.46% ( | 50.91% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.42% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.39% ( | 43.61% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.99% ( | 66% ( |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.35% ( | 30.64% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.11% ( | 66.89% ( |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.79% ( | 17.2% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.51% ( | 47.48% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 6.49% ( 1-0 @ 6.24% ( 2-0 @ 3.69% ( 3-1 @ 2.56% ( 3-2 @ 2.25% ( 3-0 @ 1.45% ( Other @ 2.95% Total : 25.63% | 1-1 @ 10.97% ( 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0-0 @ 5.27% ( 3-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.46% | 1-2 @ 9.66% ( 0-1 @ 9.28% ( 0-2 @ 8.17% ( 1-3 @ 5.67% ( 0-3 @ 4.79% ( 2-3 @ 3.35% ( 1-4 @ 2.49% ( 0-4 @ 2.11% ( 2-4 @ 1.48% ( Other @ 3.92% Total : 50.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 27 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 20 | 37 | 67 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 78 | 32 | 46 | 58 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 61 | 32 | 29 | 53 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 52 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 47 | 31 | 16 | 46 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 46 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Groningen | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 32 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 32 |
| 10 | Heracles | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 31 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 30 |
| 13 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 29 |
| 15 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
| 16 | Willem II | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 24 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 18 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 50 | -32 | 18 |
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