Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 75.8%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Almere City had a probability of 8.39%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.47%) and 0-3 (10.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.5%), while for an Almere City win it was 1-0 (3.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.