

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 60.19%. A win for NEC had a probability of 20.11% and a draw had a probability of 19.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.72%) and 1-3 (7.18%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (5.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 20.11% ( | 19.69% ( | 60.19% ( |
| Both teams to score 63.56% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.73% ( | 32.26% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.12% ( | 53.87% ( |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.04% | 28.95% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.15% ( | 64.84% ( |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.46% ( | 10.53% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.76% ( | 34.23% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 5.27% ( 1-0 @ 3.78% ( 3-2 @ 2.45% ( 2-0 @ 2.34% ( 3-1 @ 2.18% ( 3-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 3.12% Total : 20.11% | 1-1 @ 8.51% ( 2-2 @ 5.93% 0-0 @ 3.05% ( 3-3 @ 1.84% Other @ 0.36% Total : 19.69% | 1-2 @ 9.57% 0-2 @ 7.72% 1-3 @ 7.18% ( 0-1 @ 6.86% ( 0-3 @ 5.8% ( 2-3 @ 4.45% 1-4 @ 4.04% ( 0-4 @ 3.26% ( 2-4 @ 2.51% ( 1-5 @ 1.82% ( 0-5 @ 1.47% ( 2-5 @ 1.13% ( 3-4 @ 1.04% Other @ 3.35% Total : 60.19% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 26 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 55 | 20 | 35 | 64 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 78 | 30 | 48 | 58 |
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 47 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 52 | 37 | 15 | 46 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 45 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 44 |
| 8 | Groningen | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 32 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 32 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 31 |
| 11 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 30 |
| 12 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 30 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 29 |
| 14 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
| 15 | Heracles | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 28 |
| 16 | Willem II | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 24 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 50 | -32 | 18 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 17 |
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