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Serie A

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Serie A | Gameweek 30
Mar 30, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Milan logo

Napoli
2 - 1
AC Milan

Politano (2'), Lukaku (19')
Lukaku (40'), Conte (76')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Jovic (84')
Jimenez (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions
Last Game: Venezia 0-0 Napoli
Sunday, March 16 at 11.30am in Serie A

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 2-1 Como
Saturday, March 15 at 5pm in Serie A

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 50.07%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Napoli in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Napoli.

Result
NapoliDrawAC Milan
50.07% (0.056000000000004 0.06)24.16% (-0.029 -0.03)25.77% (-0.025000000000002 -0.03)
Both teams to score 55.24% (0.075000000000003 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.44% (0.11 0.11)46.56% (-0.107 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.17% (0.105 0.11)68.83% (-0.102 -0.1)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.36% (0.066000000000003 0.07)18.64% (-0.064 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.05% (0.107 0.11)49.95% (-0.104 -0.1)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.9% (0.037999999999997 0.04)32.1% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.42% (0.044999999999998 0.04)68.58% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Napoli 50.07%
    AC Milan 25.77%
    Draw 24.16%
NapoliDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 10.05% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.59% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-0 @ 8.44% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-1 @ 5.37% (0.013 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.73% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.05% (0.011 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.26% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.99% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.28% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.31%
Total : 50.07%
1-1 @ 11.42% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.98% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-2 @ 5.45% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.16% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.16%
0-1 @ 6.8% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-2 @ 6.49% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 3.86% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.46% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 2.07% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.46% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 25.77%

How you voted: Napoli vs AC Milan

Napoli
74.3%
Draw
10.6%
AC Milan
15.0%
113
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Giroud (43')
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Bennacer (40')
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