Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 28

Mar 9, 2025 at 2pm UK

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli
2 - 1
Fiorentina

Lukaku (26'), Raspadori (60')
Buongiorno (47')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Gudmundsson (66')
Gudmundsson (64'), Pongracic (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions

Last Game: Napoli 1-1 Inter Milan
Saturday, March 1 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Panathinaikos 3-2 Fiorentina
Thursday, March 6 at 5.45pm in Conference League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 51.28%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Fiorentina had a probability of 24.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Fiorentina win it was 0-1 (7.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
Napoli	Draw	Fiorentina
51.28% ( 0.05)	24.66% ( 0.02)	24.06% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 51.91% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.87% (

-0.15)

50.13% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.91% (

-0.14)

72.09% (

0.14)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.46% (

-0.04)

19.54% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.56% (

-0.06)

51.44% (

0.07)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.52% (

-0.15)

35.48% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.76% (

-0.16)

72.24% (

0.16)

Score Analysis

Napoli 51.27%

Fiorentina 24.06%

Draw 24.65%

Napoli	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 11.31% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.24% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.21% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.13% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.93% Total : 51.27%	1-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.65%	0-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.98% Total : 24.06%

How you voted: Napoli vs Fiorentina

Napoli

82.7%

Draw

17.3%

Fiorentina

0.0%

Head to Head

Jan 4, 2025 5pm

Gameweek 19

Fiorentina

0-3

Napoli

Neres (29'), Lukaku (54' pen.), McTominay (68')
Di Lorenzo (39')

> Preview

May 17, 2024 7.45pm

Gameweek 37

Fiorentina

2-2

Napoli

Biraghi (40'), N'Zola (42')
Mandragora (84')

Rrahmani (8'), Kvaratskhelia (57')
Kvaratskhelia (41'), Cajuste (70')

> Preview

Jan 18, 2024 7pm

Semi-Finals

Napoli

3-0

Fiorentina

Simeone (22'), Zerbin (84', 86')

Biraghi (51')

> Preview

Oct 8, 2023 7.45pm

Gameweek 8

Napoli

1-3

Fiorentina

Osimhen (45+5' pen.)
Simeone (90+1'), Cajuste (90+5')

Brekalo (7'), Bonaventura (63'), Gonzalez (90+3')
Terracciano (45+4'), Martinez (69'), Bonaventura (70'), Ranieri (89')

> Preview

May 7, 2023 5pm

Gameweek 34

Napoli

1-0

Fiorentina

Osimhen (74' pen.)

> Preview

Form Guide

Napoli 1-1 Inter Milan

Panathinaikos 3-2 Fiorentina

Fiorentina 1-0 Lecce

Hellas Verona 1-0 Fiorentina

Fiorentina 0-2 Como

Inter Milan 2-1 Fiorentina

Fiorentina 3-0 Inter Milan

Nations League

International Friendlies

International Friendlies

International Friendlies

World Cup Qualifying - Asia

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America

COSAFA Cup

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Napoli	38	24	10	4	59	27	32	82
2	Inter Milan	38	24	9	5	79	35	44	81
3	Atalanta BC Atalanta	38	22	8	8	78	37	41	74
4	Juventus	38	18	16	4	58	35	23	70
5	Roma	38	20	9	9	56	35	21	69
6	Fiorentina	38	19	8	11	60	41	19	65
7	Lazio	38	18	11	9	61	49	12	65
8	AC Milan	38	18	9	11	61	43	18	63
9	Bologna	38	16	14	8	57	47	10	62
10	Como	38	13	10	15	49	52	-3	49
11	Torino	38	10	14	14	39	45	-6	44
12	Udinese	38	12	8	18	41	56	-15	44
13	Genoa	38	10	13	15	37	49	-12	43
14	Hellas Verona Hellas Verona	38	10	7	21	34	66	-32	37
15	Cagliari Cagliari	38	9	9	20	40	56	-16	36
16	Parma	38	7	15	16	44	58	-14	36
17	Lecce	38	8	10	20	27	58	-31	34
18	Empoli	38	6	13	19	33	59	-26	31
19	Venezia Venezia	38	5	14	19	32	56	-24	29
R	Monza	38	3	9	26	28	69	-41	18
					> Serie A Full Table