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Serie A | Gameweek 27
Feb 28, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Lecce logo

Fiorentina
1 - 0
Lecce

Gosens (9')
Beltran (17'), Zaniolo (61'), Mandragora (86')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Berisha (45+2'), Gallo (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and Lecce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Hellas Verona 1-0 Fiorentina
Sunday, February 23 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Lecce 0-1 Udinese
Friday, February 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A

We said: Fiorentina 2-0 Lecce

Although Fiorentina have recorded only eight more shots than Lecce in Serie A this season, the Viola have a good conversion rate of 13.2% - the third-highest throughout Italy's top flight - and their visitors (5.9%) have the worst. The Salentini rarely travel well either, so the hosts should prevail and put a stop to their slump. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 56.99%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 19.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.04%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fiorentina in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Fiorentina.

Result
FiorentinaDrawLecce
56.99% (0.736 0.74) 23.92% (-0.144 -0.14) 19.09% (-0.59 -0.59)
Both teams to score 47.52% (-0.509 -0.51)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.42% (-0.186 -0.19)52.58% (0.188 0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.77% (-0.16 -0.16)74.23% (0.16200000000001 0.16)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.73% (0.20599999999999 0.21)18.27% (-0.204 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.67% (0.348 0.35)49.33% (-0.346 -0.35)
Lecce Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.14% (-0.77 -0.77)41.86% (0.772 0.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.69% (-0.677 -0.68)78.31% (0.68000000000001 0.68)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 56.98%
    Lecce 19.09%
    Draw 23.92%
FiorentinaDrawLecce
1-0 @ 12.99% (0.18 0.18)
2-0 @ 11.04% (0.22 0.22)
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 6.26% (0.168 0.17)
3-1 @ 5.45% (0.033 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.66% (0.089 0.09)
3-2 @ 2.38% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.32% (0.029 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.01% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
5-0 @ 0.91% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 56.98%
1-1 @ 11.32% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 7.65% (0.057 0.06)
2-2 @ 4.19% (-0.091 -0.09)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 23.92%
0-1 @ 6.66% (-0.092 -0.09)
1-2 @ 4.93% (-0.141 -0.14)
0-2 @ 2.9% (-0.103 -0.1)
1-3 @ 1.43% (-0.073 -0.07)
2-3 @ 1.22% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 19.09%

How you voted: Fiorentina vs Lecce

Fiorentina
91.2%
Draw
7.0%
Lecce
1.8%
114
Head to Head
Oct 20, 2024 2pm
Gameweek 8
Lecce
0-6
Fiorentina

Gallo (43')
Cataldi (20', 45'), Colpani (34', 54'), Beltran (61'), Parisi (72')
Colpani (18'), Adli (42'), Gosens (59'), Ranieri (80'), Richardson (85')
Feb 2, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 23
Lecce
3-2
Fiorentina
Oudin (17'), Piccoli (90'), Dorgu (90+2')
Almqvist (50'), Banda (77'), Gendrey (82')
Mandragora (50'), Beltran (67')
Martinez (15'), Ranieri (72'), Gonzalez (90')
Aug 27, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 2
Fiorentina
2-2
Lecce
Gonzalez (3'), Duncan (25')
Martinez (59')
Rafia (49'), Krstovic (76')
Pongracic (15'), Gendrey (54'), Chinazaekpere Dorgu (63')
Mar 19, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 27
Fiorentina
1-0
Lecce
Gallo (27' og.)
Oct 17, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 10
Lecce
1-1
Fiorentina
Ceesay (43')
Kouame (48')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CNapoli382410459273282
2Inter Milan38249579354481
3Atalanta BCAtalanta38228878374174
4Juventus381816458352370
5Roma38209956352169
6Fiorentina381981160411965
7Lazio381811961491265
8AC Milan381891161431863
9Bologna381614857471062
10Como381310154952-349
11Torino381014143945-644
12Udinese38128184156-1544
13Genoa381013153749-1243
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona38107213466-3237
15CagliariCagliari3899204056-1636
16Parma38715164458-1436
17Lecce38810202758-3134
18Empoli38613193359-2631
19VeneziaVenezia38514193256-2429
RMonza3839262869-4118


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