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J1 League | Gameweek 20 | 2nd Leg
Jun 14, 2025 at 9.30am UK
Shonan BMW Stadium Hiratsuka

Shonan Bellmare
vs.
Machida Zelvia

Preview: Shonan Bellmare vs Machida Zelvia - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's J1 League clash between Shonan Bellmare and Machida Zelvia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Fresh off success in their respective cup outings, Shonan Bellmare and Machida Zelvia will resume J1 League action when both sides lock horns at the Lemon Gas Stadium.

The hosts head into the clash buoyed by a 2-0 victory over Gifu on Wednesday, while the visitors also progressed to the next round with a 2-1 win against Kyoto Sangyo.



Match preview

Shonan Bellmare's Kim Min-tae in action on March 17, 2024 [IMAGO]

Quick-fire second-half goals from Akito Suzuki and Kim Min-tae sealed a second straight home triumph for Shonan against the third-tier outfit, booking their place in the third round of the Emperor’s Cup.

Satoshi Yamaguchi’s side had claimed another 2-0 victory at the Lemon Gas Stadium just days earlier against Jubilo Iwata, with that result rendering their subsequent 1-0 second-leg defeat inconsequential, as they reached the main phase of the YBC Levain tournament.

However, while cup progress has offered some respite, their J1 League campaign paints a different picture, as the Hiratsuka outfit are winless in their last three matches (D1, L2), with a 2-0 away success at Tokyo Verdy their only league victory in seven outings.

Even home advantage has not helped change the tide for Yamaguchi’s men, who have failed to record a top-flight win at the Lemon Gas in their last five appearances, drawing twice and losing three, including a 1-1 stalemate with Fagiano Okayama in their last outing at the ground in this competition.

That poor return leaves Shonan 16th in the standings with 22 points from six wins, four draws and nine defeats, a position that owes much to their attacking woes.

Defensively, the Hiratsuka club have been decent, having conceded 23 in 19 games, but their frontline has only managed 14 goals, which is the third fewest return in the league.

This bluntness in the final third is something Yamaguchi will be desperate to fix ahead of Saturday’s fixture, or the drought could persist and drag his team closer to danger, especially as Shonan sit just three points above 18th-placed FC Tokyo, who have a game in hand.

Like their hosts, Machida will hope their cup momentum can spark a turnaround in the league, where they have managed just one victory in their last six matches.

After halting a three-game winless spell with a comprehensive 3-0 triumph over Kashiwa Reysol, Go Kuroda’s men have since failed to build on that response, taking just one point from the following two fixtures.

A spirited comeback to draw 2-2 at Okayama would have earned Machida some plaudits, but that was quickly forgotten following a humbling 3-0 defeat to bottom-placed Yokohama F Marinos in front of thir own fans.

While their home performances continue to frustrate, Zelvia have generally fared better on the road this season, winning five of their 10 away league games and their 18-point haul keeps them as the third-best travelling side in the top flight.

That said, recent away form has taken a dip, with no victories in their last three outings, and that does little to inspire confidence for Kuroda’s men, who prepare to face a side they have never beaten in seven previous meetings.

Machida have suffered four defeats in this fixture, including back-to-back 1-0 losses in their last two encounters, and they have only managed to find the net once across all seven.

So far in the 2024-25 campaign, Zelvia have netted 22 goals in 19 matches and currently occupy 10th spot with 25 points, though whether they can finally overcome their Shonan curse remains to be seen.

 

Shonan Bellmare J1 League form:



  • L

  • L

  • W

  • L

  • L

  • D


Shonan Bellmare form (all competitions):



  • W

  • L

  • D

  • W

  • L

  • W


Machida Zelvia J1 League form:



  • L

  • L

  • D

  • W

  • D

  • L


Machida Zelvia form (all competitions):



  • D

  • W

  • L

  • D

  • L

  • W




Team News

Shonan Bellmare head coach Satoshi Yamaguchi during the 2024 J1 League match between Shonan Bellmare 4-4 Urawa Red Diamonds at Lemon Gas Stadium Hiratsuka in Kanagawa, Japan, March 17, 2024 [IMAGO]

Shonan came through their midweek win over Gifu unscathed, and Yamaguchi could stick with the same 3-5-2 setup that delivered victory.

Suzuki, having made an impact off the bench, is in strong contention to start up front this time, likely replacing Ryo Nemoto in the XI. 

The attacking burden will fall on Suzuki, Luiz Phellype and Sho Fukuda — the latter recently returned from injury — with all three players currently the club’s joint-top scorers in the league on three goals.

Twenty-one-year-old centre-back Junnosuke Suzuki may be unavailable again after missing the last three matches.

For Machida, Shota Fujio grabbed the equaliser against Kyoto Sangyo before substitute Yuki Soma netted the winner from the penalty spot in added time, and both forwards are expected to feature prominently on Saturday.

Twenty-two-year-old defender Takumi Narasaka made his first start in almost a year following a cruciate ligament injury sustained in July 2024, and he could make the lineup once again.

Takuma Nishimura, who leads the team with five goals in the league, is tipped to return to the starting lineup after coming off the bench in midweek.

 

Shonan Bellmare possible starting lineup:

Sanada; Tachi, Kim, Oiwa; Ishibashi, Fujii, Ricardo, Ikeda; Fukuda, Phellype, Suzuki

Machida Zelvia possible starting lineup:

Morita; Mochisuki, Dresevic, Narasaka, Hayashi; Shento, Shiresaki, Tekahashi; Nishimura, Fujio, Soma



SM words green background

We say: Shonan Bellmare 1-1 Machida Zelvia

Both sides have struggled for consistency lately, with Shonan shaky at home and Machida’s away form slipping, so a low-scoring stalemate could be on the cards.

 

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.





 


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 44.31%. A draw has a probability of 28.6% and a win for Shonan Bellmare has a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win is 0-1 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (8.97%) and 1-2 (8.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (13.08%), while for a Shonan Bellmare win it is 1-0 (10.29%).


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