

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 52.73%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 24.65% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 52.73% ( | 22.61% ( | 24.65% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.33% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.38% ( | 40.62% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.99% ( | 63.01% ( |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.53% ( | 15.46% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.67% ( | 44.33% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.18% ( | 29.82% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.1% ( | 65.9% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 9.72% ( 1-0 @ 8.61% ( 2-0 @ 8.03% ( 3-1 @ 6.05% ( 3-0 @ 5% ( 3-2 @ 3.66% ( 4-1 @ 2.82% ( 4-0 @ 2.33% ( 4-2 @ 1.71% ( 5-1 @ 1.05% Other @ 3.75% Total : 52.73% | 1-1 @ 10.41% ( 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0-0 @ 4.61% ( 3-3 @ 1.48% ( Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.61% | 1-2 @ 6.3% ( 0-1 @ 5.58% ( 0-2 @ 3.38% ( 1-3 @ 2.54% ( 2-3 @ 2.37% ( 0-3 @ 1.36% ( Other @ 3.12% Total : 24.65% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 32 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 63 | 30 | 33 | 74 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 96 | 37 | 59 | 73 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 32 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 74 | 36 | 38 | 65 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 44 | 17 | 62 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 60 | 44 | 16 | 54 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 54 | 34 | 20 | 53 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 53 | 50 | 3 | 48 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 40 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 39 |
| 10 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 38 |
| 11 | Groningen | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 38 |
| 12 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 38 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 45 | 1 | 37 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 35 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 33 | 54 | -21 | 32 |
| 16 | Willem II | 32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 25 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 39 | 69 | -30 | 22 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 20 |
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