

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 54.83%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 23.02% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.71%) and 0-2 (8.37%). The likeliest Willem II win was 2-1 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 23.02% ( | 22.15% ( | 54.83% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.94% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.76% ( | 40.24% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.39% ( | 62.61% ( |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.04% ( | 30.96% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.74% ( | 67.26% ( |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.37% ( | 14.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.24% ( | 42.76% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 2-1 @ 5.99% ( 1-0 @ 5.31% ( 2-0 @ 3.11% ( 3-1 @ 2.34% ( 3-2 @ 2.25% ( 3-0 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 2.8% Total : 23.02% | 1-1 @ 10.2% ( 2-2 @ 5.75% ( 0-0 @ 4.53% ( 3-3 @ 1.44% ( Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.14% | 1-2 @ 9.81% ( 0-1 @ 8.71% ( 0-2 @ 8.37% ( 1-3 @ 6.28% ( 0-3 @ 5.36% ( 2-3 @ 3.68% ( 1-4 @ 3.02% ( 0-4 @ 2.58% ( 2-4 @ 1.77% ( 1-5 @ 1.16% ( 0-5 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 3.1% Total : 54.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 31 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 74 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 89 | 34 | 55 | 67 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 68 | 32 | 36 | 62 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 62 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 47 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 40 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 36 |
| 10 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 35 |
| 11 | Groningen | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 35 |
| 12 | Heracles | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 35 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 33 |
| 14 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 32 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 |
| 16 | Willem II | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 50 | -20 | 24 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 31 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 20 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 35 | 62 | -27 | 19 |
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