

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 43.25%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 31.8% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Willem II win was 1-0 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | Groningen |
| 31.8% ( | 24.95% ( | 43.25% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.72% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.51% ( | 46.49% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.24% ( | 68.77% ( |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.27% ( | 27.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.7% ( | 63.3% ( |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.49% ( | 21.51% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.44% ( | 54.57% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | Groningen |
| 1-0 @ 7.65% ( 2-1 @ 7.54% ( 2-0 @ 4.91% ( 3-1 @ 3.22% ( 3-2 @ 2.48% ( 3-0 @ 2.1% ( 4-1 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.87% Total : 31.8% | 1-1 @ 11.75% ( 0-0 @ 5.97% ( 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 3-3 @ 1.27% ( Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.95% | 0-1 @ 9.17% ( 1-2 @ 9.03% ( 0-2 @ 7.04% ( 1-3 @ 4.63% ( 0-3 @ 3.61% ( 2-3 @ 2.97% ( 1-4 @ 1.78% ( 0-4 @ 1.39% ( 2-4 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 2.51% Total : 43.25% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 27 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 20 | 37 | 67 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 78 | 32 | 46 | 58 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 61 | 32 | 29 | 53 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 52 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 47 | 31 | 16 | 46 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 46 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Groningen | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 32 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 32 |
| 10 | Heracles | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 31 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 30 |
| 13 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 29 |
| 15 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
| 16 | Willem II | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 24 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 18 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 50 | -32 | 18 |
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